ASIA INSURANCE REVIEW (edited): Interview on future of insurance and reinsurance: Dr Patrick Dixon, Chairman of Global Change and notable Futurist, expects the current risks to spawn opportunities for insurers and reinsurers to grow, but insurers must communicate the right message first.Elaborating, he stresses that the key is that companies and governments must cast their vision on the long-term risks that will prevail and how they can prepare, mitigate and combat their effects.
Growing risks for reinsurance industry
And what are these risks? Dr Dixon has a long list of them and finds it hard to pick the top four. “I wish you’d give me at least ten risks to talk about,” the 53-year-old quips.Nevertheless, his four selected risks for the insurance industry, in no particular order, are:
1. Contagious financial chaos: Our world is becoming more stitched together with more people jumping online, more people communicating at the speed of light, increasing volumes of international trade, all leading to escalating complexity. Dr Dixon adds: “We are now so interconnected and one of our greatest risks is managing weird combinations of risk that we hadn’t realised were possible. Complex financial instruments that people did not understand had caused the biggest shocks in the world recently and we will continue to see such complex monetary shocks. These are compelling reasons to reinsure such risks.”
2. Climate change: This is turning out to be impacting human beings much worse than originally forecast, especially in Asia, therefore insurers must be more active in climate change discussions, Dr Dixon says.
3. Growing contrast between the wealthiest and poorest in our societies: He expects this moral challenge to cause political instability, civil war and regional conflict on a scale that has not been seen before. The price of an apartment in Mumbai, compared to someone living under a plastic sheet in its shadow, is an example.
“You’ll see much of the same contrast in most of Asia, while gaps in the US, UK, Australia are also widening. History shows us that conflicts and disparities like these are unsustainable. Eventually people rise up,” he says, adding that such growing contrasts will materialise into regional instability and could spell violent seizures for asset prices and business interruptions.
4. Mutant viruses: We remain a very vulnerable specie to global pandemics. The Asian region is particularly sensitive as shown by outbreaks such as SARS, Bird and Swine Flu, which will continue to fuel the need for insurance.
Preparing for wildcards
Nevertheless, on top of future insurance risks, wildcards exist in every industry, he says, classifying these as “low probability events which cause massive destruction”. Recent examples are illustrated by BP’s oil spill, Iceland’s volcanic activity and the September 11 attacks. “Businesses everywhere underestimate the number of wildcards they have and their level of exposure to risks.”
This is why insurance is so important for businesses and helps to keep the wheels of the economy going, says the futurist. In BP’s case, having had advised them before, he deems the oil spill as not an unexpected risk as “it all boils down to an issue of the size of the company…the bigger it is, the more risks are attached.”
Changing image of insurers, it’s all about “trust” As for expanding and building a sustainable industry, he says: “You need to be clear what message you are communicating”, since insurers have had a “bad image” for over 30 years. Adding: “In this global world, the days of obsessing and talking about profits and bottom lines are over. If you continue to do that, you’ll destroy the industry. You need to convey trust.”
The truth or the key story behind insurance is that it is “a cooperative community of people who have chosen to carry each other’s risks through good and bad times and insurance companies exist to pay out in times of trouble.” If insurers can articulate this clearly and build trust within communities, Dr Dixon believes they can grow the market anywhere.
Communicate Right Message
In communicating the ‘right’ message, he advises insurers to change their language.
An insurance company CEO should discuss the good that it has done, such as: “Last year, I’m proud to tell you, we rebuilt the homes of 5,000 people in Singapore…We were there to support, sadly, 300 families who lost their parents in car crashes… We were there to support a family of three young children, whose father tragically died from cancer at the age of 35 [by] paying out a quarter of a million dollars to help them with immediate challenges over the next five years.”
The things insurers do for the community and its people are fantastic, he commends, and should be communicated by insurers. And declares that companies must fight tooth and nail to protect their image, saying: “Be proud and tell the story!”
Inside the mind of a Futurist In 2005 Dr Dixon was ranked as one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive, according to the Thinkers 50 (a private survey printed in The Times (UK)), alongside Bill Gates, Jack Welch, and Richard Branson, just to name a few.
There is one key criterion for being a Futurist, elaborates Dr Patrick Dixon. “When you think about ‘tomorrow’ you are a Futurist. From a farmer, parent to a politician, we are all futurists if we think ahead.” However, for himself, he adds: “My daily mission is to: ‘Make sense of how the wider world is changing and what companies can do today to prepare ahead.’”
Quick Facts
To get into the mind of this leading futurist, here are some quick facts on Dr Dixon:
• Role model: Nelson Mandela
• Received his calling? As a physician, he was looking after cancer patients at the St Joseph’s Hospice, London. “When these patients found out they only have a few weeks or months left, they came alive, in an amazing way,” he said, which triggered him to quit as a doctor, start an AIDS Foundation and get into this futuristic work.
• Personal Campaign: He and his wife founded the ACET International Alliance, a network of independent national AIDS care and prevention programs, active in 23 countries including the UK, Ireland, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Thailand, India, Ukraine and Russia. He is currently its Chairman.
• What drives him: Wanting to make a difference and help create a better world.
• Most proud of: His wife and four children.
• Received his calling? As a physician, he was looking after cancer patients at the St Joseph’s Hospice, London. “When these patients found out they only have a few weeks or months left, they came alive, in an amazing way,” he said, which triggered him to quit as a doctor, start an AIDS Foundation and get into this futuristic work.
• Personal Campaign: He and his wife founded the ACET International Alliance, a network of independent national AIDS care and prevention programs, active in 23 countries including the UK, Ireland, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Thailand, India, Ukraine and Russia. He is currently its Chairman.
• What drives him: Wanting to make a difference and help create a better world.
• Most proud of: His wife and four children.
October 2010
Articles and Videos on Future of Insurance
Future of Banking, Insurance and other Financial ServicesFuture of online insurance
Why small business insurance often fails to protect
Should genetic screening be allowed for life and health insurance?
Gene tests for insurance - ethical and legal issues - video
Many other videos by Patrick Dixon on insurance industry trends
Future of insurance and wealth management
Reducing risk in financial services / insurance industry
List of insurance industry clients - insurance industry corporate events
Insurance Conference Keynote Presentations - slides
Future of Insurance Industry - wider global trends - for clients of Swiss Re in Asia. Conference keynote presentation.Future Trends - for insurance industry audience with interest in sustainability. For Kilne Group.
Future of insurance and wealth management in South East Asia - internal event for senior leadership of leading global insurer.
Reducing Risk in Financial Services - risk management and investment banking. Keynote for global risk management team of Investec.
Sustainable business - leadership issues - global warming, climate change, wider environmental issues, risk management, personal and family sustainability.
Insuring a Rapidly Changing World - major trends relevant to life insurance and health cover underwriting - for clients of Munich Re
Global Trends and their impact on the insurance industry - Munich Re event for clients from Asia. How the insurance industry will be affected by wild cards (low probability, high impact events), why demographic forecasts for ageing and pensions liabilities are incorrect, the development of insurance industry in emerging markets, single issue activism and a rethink about business ethics.
The Future of Insurance, Pensions, Fund Management, Health and Life - Internal event for senior team members of Allianz looking at opportunities and challenges from such trends as new technology, demographic shifts, emerging markets and lifestyle choices. What will happen to life expectancy and the latest on ageing.
HSBC Chairman's Leadership Summit September 2005 - Opening keynote at event for HSBC senior leadership on issues likely to impact the bank, for some of the senior HSBC global leadership team.
Global Trends in Banking and Financial Services - executive training programme for senior teams at Credit Suisse, covering a broad range of issues that are likely to affect the bank and personal / corporate clients.
Managing risk in an uncertain world - Risk management client event for Zurich Financial Services in Lucerne Switzerland. How to manage risk more effectively, with clear vision of future potential liabilities and "wild cards". Many of the greatest risks are the hardest to measure - for example loss of brand value, reputation, sales and share value following high profile scandal. Risk management is becoming more complex and new strategies are needed, including better early warning systems.
The Future of Commercial Insurance Brokers - and related issues. Client event for Zurich Financial Services for their largest commercial insurance brokers in the UK, covering important insurance-related trends and risk management.
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